Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.561032 2.046017 2.695165 3.648410 5.049020e+00 7.092498e+00 10.420233
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.127633 1.685249 2.570481 4.158781 7.132077e+00 1.292541e+01 26.523447
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.844204 1.404845 2.433410 4.646835 9.905519e+00 2.394798e+01 76.149907
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.661728 1.211508 2.363232 5.323329 1.437799e+01 4.955597e+01 303.171781
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.524346 1.043052 2.266813 5.991112 2.079589e+01 1.105833e+02 1948.082584
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.394734 0.834550 1.969396 5.919056 2.559380e+01 2.116402e+02 18367.058297
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.296821 0.658084 1.659118 5.553776 2.927694e+01 3.841800e+02 717265.603971
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.242085 0.565663 1.537270 5.846114 3.970588e+01 1.057490e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.210216 0.520265 1.538891 6.807865 6.437410e+01 5.824962e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.187759 0.492167 1.588772 8.288275 1.176040e+02 1.211244e+05 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.161812 0.442650 1.527681 9.099379 1.865532e+02 5.364680e+07 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.134848 0.379229 1.367917 8.923903 2.417099e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.110171 0.316915 1.185821 8.360494 2.928551e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.097087 0.290026 1.154998 9.336280 5.419441e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.085574 0.264322 1.113680 10.243016 1.033914e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.076799 0.245550 1.097912 11.640005 2.423619e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.068936 0.227281 1.072531 13.011144 6.300147e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.059483 0.199019 0.964079 12.512666 1.002681e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.050884 0.171635 0.843600 11.374325 1.249476e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.045678 0.157150 0.800531 11.878146 3.283129e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.042627 0.151026 0.812036 14.000472 3.048521e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.040440 0.148023 0.846000 17.434067 1.211070e+08 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.037284 0.139324 0.828352 19.258725 NaN NaN NaN